2023.03.25 02:58 gloomchen Post WWE SmackDown on FOX Discussion Thread - March 24th, 2023!
| Match | Stipulation | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Cody Rhodes vs. Ludwig Kaiser | Singles Match | Cody Rhodes |
| Rey Mysterio vs. LA Knight | Singles Match | LA Knight |
| Xia Li & Lacey Evans vs. Shotzi & Natalya | Wrestlemania Fatal 4-Way Tag Team Qualifying Match | Shotzi & Natalya |
| Gunther vs. Butch | Singles Match | Gunther |
2023.03.25 01:10 cfalnevermore My Daughter and I might not be Human: I think I blew up the Neighbor’s Dog
2023.03.24 23:05 MotherOfRain Sheen Beard Saga - Part 6
2023.03.24 22:47 xtremexavier15 TSA 23
2023.03.24 22:38 Muted-Blackberry865 Rough Itinerary Check! 7 Days - Tokyo/Osaka/Kyoto
2023.03.24 22:26 DapperPandas Blend-S isn't that bad
2023.03.24 22:15 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.24 22:15 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.24 22:14 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.24 22:12 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.24 22:12 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.24 22:11 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.24 22:10 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
2023.03.24 22:09 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
2023.03.24 22:08 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.24 20:37 LynnK0919 4,500 words of dialogue, 250 times a year: How ‘The Young and the Restless’ is made
On a recent afternoon, Josh Griffith and Amanda Beall were huddled in an office at CBS Television City, brainstorming a way for two characters on “The Young and the Restless” to embark on a brief affair.Um, I'd like to know when was the last time Ms. Esser cried after acting out scenes from her recent scripts? ;-)
Beall, the show’s co-head writer, had an idea. “Bunker sex,” she said. “It’s tried and true.”
Griffith, the head writer and executive producer, nodded in agreement. “It has to be something where they both realize it doesn’t have a future.”
...Janice Ferri Esser is the longest-serving writer at “Y&R” and has written more than 1,600 episodes since joining the show in 1989. “That’s the equivalent of writing 800 feature films, and having them produced and aired,” she said in a video chat from her home in the Midwest. (“Less than an hour from the real Genoa City,” she said.)
...As a script writer, Esser is responsible for taking the episode outlines and bringing them to life with dialogue. “It’s where the sparkle comes in,” she said. Since maintaining each character’s unique voice is crucial, she often acts out scenes for her cats. “Sometimes I make myself cry. That’s how I know it’s good.”
...Despite dramatic shifts in the TV industry, the assembly-line process of writing soap operas, including “Y&R,” has largely remained the same for decades. The head writer comes up with the major arcs that the show will follow over the course of several months, then divides those arcs into weekly plot summaries, or “thrusts.” Using these thrusts, a team known as breakdown writers creates detailed episode outlines, including act breaks and scene descriptions. Finally, these outlines go to the script writers, who write the dialogue and submit their drafts for editing and approval. Within weeks, the episodes are in production.LMAO. TIL Y&R has a Continuity Dept? I think it's just one person whose services haven't been used often like the Maytag repairman when Maytag washing machines had a reputation of being durable and reliable.
...Anytime Griffith or his writers have questions about whether a plot contradicts something that occurred in the past — which happens a lot on a show that has been on the air since Richard Nixon was president — they consult the continuity department, who can tell them, for example, if the death of Diane Jenkins could possibly have been staged. (Turns out, it could; she returned to the show last year, a decade after her presumed death).
...But the creative model that has fueled “Y&R” for so long appears to be in peril. In February, the Wrap reported that Griffith had terminated the show’s entire breakdown staff and would absorb the work himself, sparking outrage from “Y&R”s impassioned fans on social media. Many predicted the imminent demise of their beloved soap opera as a result of this downsizing, which was implemented months before a possible strike by the Writers Guild of America.
A representative for the show, which is produced by Sony Pictures Television, declined to provide specific details about the staffing changes, but Griffith defended the action to The Times. “It was a creative decision that we felt would streamline the process and give us more efficiency, given the detailed thrust and layout we were already doing,” he said.