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2023.03.30 19:12 ll--o--ll Does batting or bowling win the IPL? Cricbuzz
There is a statement that has acquired cult status, especially on the T20 circuit, over the years: 'Batters win you matches. Bowlers win you tournaments.' But how true is this? In the first 15 seasons of the IPL, we have seen franchises build teams with a balance weighing towards one side or the other depending on a multitude of factors such as their home venue, style of captaincy and resource availability.submitted by ll--o--ll to Cricket [link] [comments]
As the 16th edition looms on the horizon, it is a good time to revisit the data from the past and see if the statement is just a subjective conclusion that has led to a sweeping generalization, or whether it actually holds water. A deep look at the numbers shows whether one discipline is actually more important than the other, but also reveals the most complete championshipwinning side thus far, who was the standout franchise over the first 15 years, and how to succeed at a batting-friendly venue like the Chinnaswamy.
A batting impact score is therefore derived by combining the run rate and balls per dismissal (RR x BpD/100), and similarly the formula for bowling impact score is the combination of economy rate and strike rate (ER x S100). To figure out a team's total impact score for a season, we compare their batting and bowling impact scores with the average of the other teams in the tournament.
For example, Rajasthan Royals in IPL 2022 scored 8.72 runs per over and lost a wicket every 20.88 balls, whereas the other nine teams cumulatively scored at 8.52 and lost a wicket every 18.57 deliveries. This gives the Royals a batting impact score of 1.82 (8.72 x 20.88 divided by 100 = 1.82) compared to the tournament average of 1.58, meaning their net batting impact score was +0.24.
Likewise, they conceded at 8.51 per over and took a wicket every 19.19 balls in comparison to 8.54 and 18.76 by the other teams. This works out to a bowling impact score of 1.63 for the Royals, while the remaining nine sides managed 1.60. The net bowling value for the Royals is therefore -0.03, and their total impact score for IPL 2022 is +0.21 (+0.24 - 0.03).
'Batters win you matches and bowlers win you tournaments.' But do they?
Let's start by looking at the broader trend.
There are 126 instances of teams featuring across the 15 editions of IPL (Mumbai Indians for IPL 2008 is considered one instance, while their appearance in 2009 is considered another). Among those 126 instances, there have been 39 occasions that teams have finished with both batting and bowling impact scores in the green. The average final ranking for these sides is 2.7, which falls within the playoff qualification bracket (the top four sides qualify for the knockouts in IPL). In 27 instances teams have finished with a positive batting impact score and negative bowling impact score, and these sides on average have a ranking of 5.1.
On the other hand, of the 25 times teams finished with a negative batting impact score and positive bowling impact score, they had a marginal improvement in average ranking to 4.8. From the data analyzed above, it is safe to conclude that going bowling heavy at the expense of batting will not pay dividends and the sides that have done the best are the one that found the right balance, even if it is slightly tilted towards the bowling. If we look at individual cases, the above adage was perhaps put to its sternest test in 2018.
In general, across all T20 cricket, 2018 was the best batting year and the story was no different in IPL with scoring rates peaking at 8.65. CSK were the best batting team of the tournament with a batting impact score of +0.59, well ahead of the next placed Delhi Capitals (+0.24), while SRH was one of the two teams that ended with a positive bowling impact score. SRH successfully defended totals of under 150 thrice in the season and regularly restricted oppositions to par totals or below.
The two sides faced off against each other four times with CSK coming out on top on every occasion, including the final where they upstaged SRH's bowling by chasing 179 to win by eight wickets. In 13 matches against teams other than CSK that season, SRH went at 7.92 and picked a wicket every 17.18 balls, but they came undone against CSK with the same parameters reading 8.91 and 30.67 respectively from four exchanges.
CSK's batting impact score of +0.59 in 2018 was the best among all the teams that won IPL and they were one of only two trophywinning sides to register a negative bowling impact score (MI in 2015 being the only other side). In this case, batting trumped bowling.
SRH bowling vs CSK batting in 2018
Another instance of this hypothesis being put through the acid test was in the 2015 final. This was the only instance of a final being played between a team with a positive bowling impact score and a negative batting impact score, and an opponent with scores the other way around. CSK, the league toppers, finished with impact scores of -0.04 and +0.27 in batting and bowling respectively.
Their opponents in the final - MI - were the best batting unit of the season with an impact score of +0.35, double the next best, while in bowling their score was -0.11. MI were 0.39 points ahead of CSK in batting and 0.38 points behind CSK in bowling making it the most batting vs bowling heavy sides in terms of impact scores facing each other in a summit clash. MI made 202/5 batting first and got the better of CSK, restricting them to 161 to make it 3-1 in head-to-head clashes in the season. So once again we saw batting strength getting the better of bowling strength.
The bowling heavy sides that went all the way
If the above suggests that it is batting that clinches trophies, let's look at some bowling teams that went all the way. In 2019, CSK were a hit away from clinching the title. The IPL returned to Chennai for a full season for the first time in a while and the tracks on offer at Chepauk slowed down significantly as the match progressed, which meant spin was the order of the day.
CSK realized this early and were aided in their pursuit by the fact they won six tosses out of eight home games. Luck factor aside, CSK on average bowled 15 balls of spin every innings more than their visitors, which proved to be the clincher. Imran Tahir was the Purple Cap winner that year with 26 scalps, while Harbhajan Singh and Ravindra Jadeja played the supporting cast to perfection. Deepak Chahar and Dwayne Bravo capped off the attack, owning either ends of the innings.
Each of CSK's top four leading wicket takers picked 15+ wickets at economy rates under 7.50 per over, covering up for what was one of CSK's weakest seasons with the bat. Two bowling dominant sides that went on to lift the silverware are Rajasthan Royals in the inaugural IPL and Kolkata Knight Riders in 2012, both with a bowling impact score of +0.28. Royals in 2008 had three of the four highest wicket takers (Sohail Tanvir, Shane Warne & Shane Watson) of the season, and a strong bowling attack was the backbone of their success at their bowling-friendly home in Jaipur, where they did not lose a single game.
The story was similar for KKR in 2012, where Sunil Narine led the attack with 24 wickets at an economy rate of 5.48 and was backed up by bowlers who made full use of the Eden Gardens track. No other championship-winning side has had their total impact score significantly boosted by bowling impact like KKR in 2012 (bowling impact score of +0.25 to batting impact score of +0.03). SRH in 2016 is another title-winning team whose balance was more skewed to their bowling unit.
They remain an anomaly as the only champions who had a negative batting impact score (-0.06), despite a cracking season from their skipper David Warner who hit 848 runs. Bhuvneshwar was the Purple Cap winner with 23 wickets and formed a formidable pairing with Mustafizur Rahman, who finished with 17 wickets and played big hand for them throughout the season.
Team with best bowling impact scores
The most complete championship-winning side
It would be little surprise to anyone who has followed IPL diligently to hear which was the most rounded side that ever lifted the silverware. No other side dominated an IPL season as much as Mumbai Indians did in the 2020 edition.
They lost just five games in the season, two via Super Over and one when they rested most of their first choice players, underscoring their dominance. SRH in 2017 aside (more on them later), MI in 2020 is the only team that finished with a batting impact score above +0.50 and a bowling impact score above +0.25.
They had a strong batting order with three of their top four batters (Quinton de Kock, Ishan Kishan & Suryakumar Yadav) aggregating 480+ runs at 140+ strike rate, while both Kieron Pollard and Hardik Pandya provided the finishing touch to the innings striking at 175+. MI scored at 9.09 per over and lost a wicket every 24.41 balls - RCB in 2016 is the only other instance of a team managing the double of 9+ run rate and 22+ balls per dismissal.
Despite the obvious chinks in the bowling attack - like the lack of a genuine second overseas seamer and Hardik's inability to bowl - Jasprit Bumrah (27 wickets, SR 13.33) and Trent Boult (25 wickets, SR 13.76) controlled either half of the innings, which ensured that their bowling towered above the rest. MI on average were +1.15 runs ahead every over of the opposition (run rate of 9.09 and economy rate of 7.94), which was the best a team managed in a season.
Chennai Super Kings, with an average impact score of +0.41 across the 13 editions in which they competed, is the standout IPL side in the first 15 years of the competition's journey. CSK registered a positive impact score in 12 of the 13 seasons they featured in, missing out only in IPL 2022 - which also happens to be the only time both their batting and bowling impact scores were in negative territory Among the sides which have featured in at least three editions SRH is a territory. Among the sides which have featured in at least three editions, SRH is a distant second with an average impact score of +0.14, while MI is the only other side to register a net average impact score in positive territory (+0.09).
Of the top ten entries on total impact score across the 15 editions, CSK occupy as many as five of them, with three of those culminating in title wins (2011, 2018 & 2021). In all three title-winning seasons, they managed a +0.50 batting impact score while their bowling impact score in all of these seasons was below +0.10, underscoring how batting-dominant CSK have been in their successful years. CSK teams are renowned for having deep batting lineups and they often rely on skipper MS Dhoni's tactical acumen to ensure the bowling unit's output is greater than the sum of its parts.
The only exception to this trend was their maiden title win in 2010 where they achieved their lowest batting impact score (+0.25) and highest bowling impact score (+0.11) of their four title-winning seasons. They were staring at an early exit midway through the tournament with just two wins from seven matches but regrouped well in the second half to win five matches, four of them at their bastion at Chepauk, to stage a comeback that culminated in the double of IPL and CLT20 trophies.
Title winning teams with impact scores
Cracking the Chinnaswamy code
A common denominator for every T20 dynasty is the dominance at their home ground and a team built around the characteristics of it - for example the fast bouncy wickets at Perth for the Scorchers, or the Chepauk turner for Chennai Super Kings. The Chinnaswamy Stadium typically presents a flat wicket combined with short boundaries, negating the home team's ability to assemble a squad tailored to the venue and leaving them little home advantage.
Yet RCB seemed to crack the code when they realized it is futile to plan to defend runs, and a far better strategy to go hunting for wickets. The 2015 RCB bowling attack did this to perfection when four of their highest wicket takers (Yuzvendra Chahal, Mitchell Starc, Harshal Patel & David Wiese - all with 15+ wickets each) combined to take 76 wickets between them at a rate of one every 13.9 balls. RCB's strike rate of 15.10 in that season is the best any side had managed in a season and the blueprint was set.
In the following year, they followed the same strategy with changes in personnel around Chahal. Chahal broke the door to national team selection with a 21-wicket season (SR 14.05) and was assisted by Shane Watson (20 wickets, SR 16.95), Chris Jordan (11 wickets, SR 15.27) and Sreenath Aravind (11 wickets, SR 15.91). As mentioned below, they failed to grab the clutch moments in the final and fell at the last hurdle for the third time.
The Chinnaswamy wicket was re-laid in 2017 but RCB veered away from this approach in the following years, failing to qualify for the Play Offs for three consecutive seasons between 2017 and 2019. They haven't played at the venue in the post-Covid era, a phase in which they have leaned towards a strong bowling lineup - unlike the sides of the past which were heavily loaded towards batting. RCB did find some success with their new approach, making the Play Offs for three successive years since 2020. How RCB's fortunes will pan out as they return to their home at Chinnaswamy will be one of the stories to watch out for in the 2023 IPL.
In the 126 instances of teams featuring in the IPL so far, only one team has managed a total impact score of over one point. To the surprise of many, the team in picture is SunRisers Hyderabad in 2017, who finished third in the league phase, winning eight of the 13 completed games. SRH lost a wicket every 26.32 balls, which happens to be the second best a team ever managed in a season(marginally behind Chennai Super Kings' 26.63 in 2014).
Bowling strike rate wise, their 16.36 deliveries per wicket was only bettered on two other instances, giving them a positive difference of almost ten balls for every wicket lost and every wicket taken - the highest any team has ever achieved in a season. SRH in 2017 had five batters aggregating over 200 runs, four of them averaging over 28 balls per dismissal, while four of them scored those runs at a 135+ strike rate.
David Warner won the Orange Cap for his 641 runs (SR 142, BpD 41) followed by Shikhar Dhawan (479 runs, SR 127, BpD 29), Moises Henriques (277 runs, SR 136, BpD 34), Kane Williamson (256 runs, SR 151, BpD 28) and Yuvraj Singh (252 runs, SR 142, BpD 20). SunRisers' run rate of 8.64 was the highest they ever managed in an IPL season, further underlining how good a season they had batting wise - in a phase where SRH were renowned for their bowling-heavy strategy under Tom Moody.
Bhuvneshwar Kumar led the bowling charts, winning Purple Cap for the second year running with an eye popping strike rate of 12 balls every wicket. A teenaged Rashid Khan made giant strides in his debut IPL season with 17 scalps at an economy of 6.63, followed by Siddarth Kaul and Mohammed Siraj, who bagged 16 and 10 scalps at strike rates of 13.4 and 13.8 respectively.
In a tournament where they dominated with both bat and ball, SRH were unlucky not to go further as they crashed out in the Eliminator to KKR at the Chinnaswamy Stadium. The tracks at Chinnaswamy were re-laid before the season which made it play contrary to its usual self, making batting a mean job. Adding to SRH's misfortune, the chase was cut short when rain reduced the game to a five-over shootout, leaving them little chance of a comeback.
Teams with best impact scores
The only other instance a team came close to match SunRisers' feat was RCB in IPL 2016, where they finished with a net impact score of +0.96. They assembled what could arguably be the finest batting lineup the IPL has ever witnessed - Virat Kohli, AB de Villiers, Chris Gayle, Shane Watson, and KL Rahul making up their top five. Kohli's magnum opus of 973 runs in a single edition in 2016 remains unmatched, and he was ably supported by AB de Villiers (687 runs, Avg 52.85, SR 169) and KL Rahul in what was his breakout season (397 runs, Avg 44.11, SR 146). RCB's scoring of 9.63 in 2016 is the best any team has managed in an IPL season thus far, and they did so losing a wicket only every 26.17 balls, giving them a batting impact score of 0.92 - the highest any team achieved in a season.
Gayle and Watson did not have particularly fruitful tournaments with the bat, but Watson more than made it up for that with his best season with the ball, accounting for 20 wickets. Like SRH in 2017, RCB was also unlucky not to end their title drought in 2016 as they failed to latch on to the key moments on the night that mattered. From a winning position, their inform middle order choked under pressure in the back half of the run chase to end eight runs short.
Team with best batting impact scores
The unlucky ones
Of the top 25 teams on total impact score, the only side that failed to make it past the league phase is the RCB side of 2013. They finished with a total impact score of +0.60, while no other side that finished outside the top four could even get to +0.30. RCB in 2013 also remain the only side across 15 seasons that failed to finish in the top four despite winning more than half of their league games (nine wins and seven defeats from 16 league games).
MI in 2008 is another side that was unfortunate to miss the knockouts despite a total impact score of +0.28. They started off in the worst possible manner, losing four games on the trot, their original captain injured and their stand-in captain suspended. They staged a remarkable comeback to win their next six games before falling agonizingly short in the final over in their following three games.
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