2015.03.16 21:10 BartmanJSimpson Part time and Full Time jobs in Colorado.
2015.06.04 03:54 maynoeed Jobs Openings in India
2009.01.09 14:54 South Carolina News and Discussion
2023.03.31 17:50 WolfieZee Would you like to see more random events in the open world/dungeons?
2023.03.31 17:49 notreallysurefriends Sales Career Search Advice
2023.03.31 17:49 kenlin7678 ClimateStudio Rhino plug-in create octree failure
A big problem for me even if I think I know a little bit about software. This is my first time asking Rhino here also I am not good at English. I could really use your help.submitted by kenlin7678 to rhino [link] [comments]
I'm learning environmental performance for the Architecture. There is a plugin for Rhinoceros 3D named ClimateStudio by team Solemma. ClimateStudio use Radiance 5.3 that builded in with the main program to calculate a part of simulation.
Everytime when I run the workflows always failed with the messenge "Octree error: octree failed" (yellow under line of the below picture). I am sure that the .3dm file I build can run by the school computer and my friend's. I doubt whether there is any conflicting Rhino and Grasshopper plug-in, so I have cleaned and repaired the program several times. There is another possibility that ClimateStudio cannot package the model to Radiance for analysis. So I manually added the Path of Radiance to system environment variable on my computer.
Thanks for finishing reading my long story. Maybe I can keep using Ladybug and Honeybee instead of ClimateStudio. But it really powerful and convenient of environmental simulation (In fact I don't want to open Grasshopper XD).
2023.03.31 17:49 SuperChadMonkey Need advice before I drop $3500 on a psych eval- Medical issue
2023.03.31 17:49 Available-Key641 Wording in contract. Secondary Teacher (Business), F28. Do I need to be wary of signing this?
2023.03.31 17:49 ZZ1Lord [Online][5e] [DoIP] [EU 7PM - Thursdays GMT+3] I will DM for you to fill the DM Shortage!
2023.03.31 17:49 thinkingstranger March 30, 2023
2023.03.31 17:49 ParanormalM The Haunted Apartment: A Tale of Ghostly Encounters
2023.03.31 17:49 Inner_Coast7282 I was a Senior Group Leader (supervisor) at Elk River Treatment Program (2017-2019). This is my story.
2023.03.31 17:49 minebookme Business Ideas – Personal Shopping Service
https://preview.redd.it/gzsz4i2vi3ra1.jpg?width=1350&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea8a5929beb23fb7779159e1c7061d815b708f91submitted by minebookme to u/minebookme [link] [comments]
A personal shopping service is a distinctive and expanding business concept that provides clients with personalized shopping experiences based on their individual styles, interests, and spending limits. With the growth of e-commerce and the rising desire for personalized services, launching a shopping service that is personal may provide a successful and fulfilling employment opportunity.
In this article, we will discuss business ideas for personal shopping services and the best personal shopping services.
Must-Know Facts About Providing Personal Shopping ServicesLet’s look at some of the queries regarding personal shopping services.
What Industry Is Personal Shopping?The retail and fashion industries include the service sector of personal shopping. Although they frequently work in shops or boutiques, personal shoppers can also freelance or offer their services online. The sector focuses on assisting people in locating and buying clothes and other items that are appropriate for their unique needs and preferences. Since consumers want more individualized and effective shopping experiences, the function of shoppers has grown in significance.
What Are Online Personal Shopping Services?Online personal shopping services are digital platforms including virtual styling sessions, online shopping suggestions, subscriptions, personalized shopping portals, and wardrobe management programs that offer customers individualized buying recommendations. Online personal shopping services provide a simple and effective approach for customers to get tailored buying advice from the convenience of their own homes.
Building The Best Personal Shopping ServicesIf you are planning to build a business based on personal shopping services, your first priority should be building the best personal shopping services around your area. By doing this, you will never run out of clients and will have sufficient income to grow your business.
What Are Luxury Personal Shopping Services?For clients looking for customized styling and wardrobe guidance, access to luxury brands, VIP treatment, tickets to special events, private shopping experiences, and other concierge services, luxury personal shopping services provide exclusive, high-quality shopping opportunities. For customers seeking the best in upscale clothes and individualized care, they offer an upgraded and unique shopping experience. Now you know about luxury personal shopping services.
How To Start A Personal Shopping Service?In order to launch a personal shopping service, you must conduct market research, create a business plan, register your company, build a brand identity, build supplier connections, create a pricing strategy, market your service, deliver first-rate customer service, and continuously assess and improve your services. Hard work, devotion, and a readiness to change with the times are necessary for success.
How To Price Personal Shopping Services?When deciding how much to charge for your personal shopping services, you should consider the following factors: the market, your experience, the amount of time and effort required, your expenses, and the value you bring to your customers. Provide a selection of different bundles, and be transparent about the prices. Price should be competitive, reasonable, and reflective of the quality of the product or service being offered.
How Much Do You Charge For Personal Shopping?The cost of shopping services can be impacted by a variety of different aspects, such as the level of expertise of the shopper, the kind of service provided, and the total duration of the shopping trip. Rates for shoppers in the country often range anywhere from $120 to $200 per hour. It is essential to look around, compare the prices, and evaluate the services that various shoppers offer in order to pick the one that best meets your budget restrictions.
What Are The Services Of A Personal Shopper?In order to assist clients in finding apparel and accessories that complement their individual tastes and needs, shoppers provide services like wardrobe inspection, personal styling, shopping assistance, special occasion styling, closet organizing, and personalized suggestions.
What Is The Objective Of A Personal Shopper?A personal shopper’s objective is to assist clients in finding accessories that reflect their sense of style, physical characteristics, and needs. They make an effort to comprehend the interests, budgets, and lifestyles of their clients in order to make specific recommendations that satisfy their particular needs. The objective is to ensure that the client feels and looks their finest in their new clothes and accessories while also making the shopping experience joyful and stress-free. In general, a personal shopper strives to offer a high caliber of service that is customized to each client’s requirements and tastes.
What Does A Personal Shopper For Women Do?Based on the client’s unique style, body shape, spending limit, and preferences, a personal shopper for women offers customized shopping experiences. Services could include advising on current fashion trends, personal shopping on special occasions, shopping trips, personalized style, and online buying assistance. In general, a personal shopper for women provides unique shopping experiences that consider each client’s needs and interests.
How Do I Become A Freelance Personal Shopper?These are some actions you may do if you’re considering working as a freelance personal shopper:
ConclusionPlanning ahead, working hard, and a dedication to offering top-notch client service are all necessary when starting a personal shopping business. A personal shopping service that provides customers with a distinctive and personalized shopping experience can grow into a successful and lucrative business with the appropriate strategy and commitment. I hope you have got a clear understanding of the business ideas of personal shopping services by reading this article.
2023.03.31 17:48 ourpseudonym US Banks Have $620 Billion of Unrealized Losses on Their Books, Most banks are strong enough to withstand the paper losses. Still, their finances could be squeezed for years to come.
The investment losses that helped take down Silicon Valley Bank are a problem, to one degree or another, across the US financial system. In total, the industry ended last year with $620 billion of unrealized losses on its books from investments in low-yielding bonds.
For most banks, the issue is manageable.
Bonds held in investment books represented less than a quarter of the banking system’s $23.6 trillion of assets in December, and unlike SVB, lenders usually have a wide array of depositors who are unlikely to all need money around the same time. For the biggest banks, the risks are even smaller. They are perceived as too big to fail. What’s more, the recent rally in the Treasury bond market — sparked, ironically, by the jitters about the health of the banking industry — is helping to shrink the $620 billion of paper losses. (In the coming weeks, banks will start to post first-quarter data.) Banks’ Equity Could Take Hit If Paper Losses Had to Be Realized For most banks, unrealized losses are a manageable problem. But investors and depositors remain jittery about lenders sitting on huge piles of money-losing bonds
And yet as depositors keep gradually withdrawing their money and shifting it into money market funds and other investments, banks are facing a squeeze. They’re being pressed to pay more for funding while their revenue is limited by the investments they made in low-yielding bonds during the pandemic. That in turn could curb their ability to lend to consumers and businesses, slowing the economy.
“They’re paying more for deposits, and their earnings on bonds are fixed,” said Stan August, a retired bank examiner for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and a former bond analyst at Bank of America. “That’s where the squeeze is.”
When the pandemic hit, and the Federal Reserve pushed down rates once again by pumping unprecedented amounts of cash into the economy, many banks loaded up on long-term government and mortgage-backed bonds. There were some Treasury notes that promised to pay annual interest of just 0.6% over 10 years.
Then inflation surged and the Fed started urgently driving up interest rates. The value of those bonds plunged, because who would want to buy an old bond paying 0.6% interest when new ones were suddenly paying more than 3%?
Losses on bonds are a risk whenever rates go up, but banks’ holdings were bigger than usual in 2022. All that cash the Fed and the government pushed into the economy quickly found its way into the banking system, giving lenders trillions of dollars to invest. SVB’s domestic deposits, for instance, rose more than 150% from the end of March 2020 through the end of 2022.
Rising deposits on their own don’t necessarily represent a problem for banks. For SVB, they spelled trouble in part because its clients tended to keep large balances at the bank as a condition for receiving services like lines of credit.
That translated to a high percentage of customers’ deposits being bigger than US deposit insurance limits. Clients with high balances at a bank are often skittish about the safety of their funds. and more likely to withdraw money fast at signs of trouble.
There were at least three data points for SVB that worried depositors: the speed at which the bank’s deposits had grown, the high percentage of uninsured deposits it had, and the magnitude of losses relative to its equity. These factors helped create a perfect storm.
But even for banks that dodge the storm, bond losses are a problem. A large part of banks’ investment portfolios use an accounting method called “held to maturity” that ensures the firms don’t have to record any losses, or any hits to their balance sheets, from the declining value of their bonds. But they also have to hold onto the bonds until they mature. Banks Locked Up Trillions in Long-Term Investments Total holdings, at amortized cost, in held-to-maturity securities for banks with at least $25 billion in assets as of Q4 2022
As banks’ deposits started to grow during the pandemic, they initially plowed more money into bonds using a method of accounting called “available for sale.” For these securities, changes in the value of the bonds would affect their balance sheets but not their income statements. That accounting method can force banks to boost their capital levels, though, if their losses get too high.
In 2021, a growing group of banks believed the Fed would soon begin raising interest rates and began switching to counting more of their bonds as held-to-maturity. The biggest banks added about $1.7 trillion of the bonds to their books over the two years ended in December. In some cases, they switched bonds over from one accounting treatment to the other. In other cases, they just stopped buying new available-for-sale securities and only added to their held-to-maturity books.
Initially it worked pretty well. Profits ballooned. The US banking system’s return on equity, a measure of profitability, averaged 12.2% in 2021, the highest since 2006.
But now that inflation and rate hikes have come, banks have suddenly been finding themselves pressured from two sides. Higher interest rates forced banks to pay more money to win deposits, with average one-year CD rates rising to about 2.7% by March, according to DepositAccounts, from 0.35% in May 2022. Consumers and companies have been taking more of their money out of banks and investing it in assets like government bonds. Deposits in commercial banks fell last year for the first time since 1948, according to the FDIC. The worst pain here is for community and regional banks, which lost $109 billion of deposits in the week ended March 15, while the biggest banks have been luring funds.
Meanwhile, the value of banks’ bond holdings plunged on paper too. The $620 billion of unrealized losses in the system at the end of 2022 were for available-for-sale and held-to-maturity securities.
The combination of surging interest rates, high investment losses and heavy deposit outflows is new for most investors and executives in the banking industry. To many, this feels like uncharted territory.
“I have covered this industry for 20 years plus and I have never seen anything like this,” said Ania Aldrich, an investment principal at Cambiar Investors. “In all the stress testing we have done for at least the largest banks have never stressed for anything like this.”
Comments from banks
Charles Schwab Bank & Charles Schwab Premier Bank
“Focusing attention on ‘unrealized losses’ in our held-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio is very misleading. These ‘paper losses’ are unrealized and would only be realized if we had to sell those securities. The profile of our depositors is very different from regional banks. Given our significant access to sources of liquidity, there is a near-zero chance we’d need to sell any of our HTM portfolio prior to maturity. That would be akin to assuming a large retail bank would sell a substantial portion of its loan portfolio... Client deposits may move, but they are not leaving the firm. As is the case in every cycle, clients make choices about where to best allocate their assets. As interest rates have increased over the last year, our clients have made choices to reallocate assets within their Schwab portfolios, to reflect their preferences in this market. And in fact, we have actively encouraged them to do so. The important point is that those allocation decisions result in the assets staying at Schwab. Despite the events of the last two weeks, we have not seen any meaningful change in client behavior regarding their cash… Comparing unrealized losses across firms with different business models can be misleading. Schwab Bank has a different business model than traditional banks. Our deposits come from transactional cash in clients’ brokerage accounts that is swept to our banks. We use about 10% of that cash to fund loans to our existing clients and with the remaining 90%, we buy securities – the vast majority of which are backed by the U.S. Government. With rates moving up, the fair value of all fixed rate assets — loans or securities — has gone down. But given that our securities are very high quality, we fully expect our securities to reach par at maturity, which means the unrealized ‘paper’ losses will decrease over time. Because a much higher percentage of our assets are securities — and traditional bank loans are not disclosed the same way — our paper losses may appear larger than those of traditional banks. But that assessment lacks the appropriate context. In reality, our portfolio has less credit risk and is actually less sensitive to changes in interest rates than many large banks,” Co-Chairmen Charles Schwab and Walt Bettinger said in a statement.
First National Bank of Pennsylvania
“Due to FNB’s conservative balance sheet and interest rate risk management leading into this higher rate environment, the duration and fair value marks of our AFS and HTM portfolios were more favorable than others in the industry. Even after fully incorporating these marks into our Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio, we would remain well capitalized. In addition, FNB has a stable and granular deposit base and maintains a strong liquidity position with uninsured deposits excluding fully collateralized balances at only 27% and has available funding sources in excess of those balances,” CEO Vincent J. Delie, Jr. said in a statement.
“Prosperity Bank has a fortress balance sheet that is well suited for times like this. In fact, we were a source of strength in the 80’s and 2008, participating in six FDIC assisted transactions. We are a traditional community bank with a diverse loan portfolio and a granular deposit base amongst the many communities that we are in. We have close to 800,000 deposit accounts with an average balance of $36,000, our uninsured and uncollateralized deposits only make up 32% of our total deposits, we have access to large amounts of liquidity, and we are extremely well capitalized. We maintain higher tangible common equity ratios than many of the large money center banks and remain well capitalized even if you include any unrealized losses in the held-to-maturity portfolio. It has been our pleasure to serve the communities we are in and help our customers navigate and understand all that is happening in the banking markets,’’ Cullen Zalman, senior vice president for banking and corporate activities at Prosperity Bank, said in a statement.
USAA Federal Savings Bank
“USAA is a fundamentally different bank than those that have struggled over the past few weeks. Our bank is consumer based, 93% of deposits are within the applicable FDIC insurance limits, and we have access to substantial liquidity to serve the needs of our members. USAA FSB also goes through rigorous stress testing to help us best support our members. Focusing on any single asset class is misguided, given additional ways to evaluate bank balance sheets, like net interest trends, which highlight the efficiencies or inefficiencies across a bank’s entire balance sheet. The degree of changes in USAA’s unrealized bond holdings is a reflection of a relatively low loan-to-deposit ratio, which means investments are a larger part of our balance sheet and accounting value fluctuations are more noticeable. But not all banks and not all investment portfolios are the same. Unrealized bond losses do not create excess risk in institutions with a stable base of customers, a strong capital position, the ability to hold such bonds to maturity and access to the liquidity necessary to meet their depositors’ and borrowers’ needs.” First-Citizens Bank & Trust Co.
“First Citizens is a well-capitalized bank, and our post-acquisition capital ratios remain within or above our target ranges. In addition, the transaction is structured to maintain our position of strength with ample liquidity and credit loss protections. Our liquidity remains strong and stable driven by conservatively managed investment portfolio, and it is enhanced by this transaction.” First-Citizens Bank & Trust Co. acquired Silicon Valley Bank from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., though the sale did not include $90 billion in securities and other assets. Huntington National Bank
“Per the company’s 10K, 68% of deposits at Huntington are insured / 32% are uninsured as of December 31, 2022. This is the lowest % of uninsured deposits among all US based publicly traded banks with $50bn+ in deposits (excluding those classified primarily as card issuers). Huntington has an active hedging program for securities, and total FV marks net of hedges for all securities are in line with peers.”
Northern Trust Co.
“Northern Trust is a global provider of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management and banking to corporations, institutions, and individuals. Northern Trust has offices in the United States as well as 23 locations in Canada, Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region… Our clients leave large amounts of deposits with us not because we offer higher rates, but because they have significant payment activity. Over 60% of our institutional deposits are considered operational by regulatory standards… Northern Trust’s business model focuses on two core markets: institutions and wealthy individuals/families. These have been our historic strengths for generations. Retail banking represents a small percentage of our client base and an even smaller percentage of our assets on deposit, which in part accounts for the low percentage of insured deposits when compared with other banks that have significantly larger retail portfolios. Northern Trust is a Category II institution under the Federal Reserve’s regulatory framework. As a result, we are the only non G-SIB required to do daily liquidity testing and report unrealized losses in regulatory capital reporting. We consistently are assigned the highest long-term credit rating of any comparable U.S. institution. Northern Trust maintains a high-quality securities portfolio. Highly liquid assets constitute 62% of total client deposits as of Dec. 31, 2022. 81% of Northern Trust’s securities portfolio is composed of U.S. Treasury, government sponsored agency and triple-A rated securities. Regarding unrealized, mark-to-market HTM investment security losses as a percentage of tangible equity, it is important to note that our balance sheet composition has a lower proportion of loans, and thus our investment securities portfolio will be larger on both an absolute and percentage basis than banks with similar asset sizes.”
Banks that declined to comment:
Bank of America, First Republic Bank, JPMorgan Chase Bank, Truist Bank, US Bank, Valley National Bank and Wells Fargo Bank Banks that didn’t respond to requests for comment or did not have immediate comment when reached:
Associated Bank, City National Bank, Manufacturers & Traders Trust Co., Santander Bank, Signature Bank, Simmons Bank, State Street Bank & Trust Co., UBS Bank USA and Webster Bank
2023.03.31 17:48 StepwiseUndrape574 Rockstar's GTA 5 Remaster For Xbox Series X And PS5 Gets A Confirmed Release Date
2023.03.31 17:48 Jaded-West-1125 I’m getting married in 2 months and this guy that I’m attracted to at work keeps popping up in my dream like my 2nd lead in my drama dream.
2023.03.31 17:48 snaebjornah Extruding Problems
my Ender 3 V2 isnt extruding properly and i think its the wheel that feeds the filament but cant find way to configure it. any advice?submitted by snaebjornah to FixMyPrint [link] [comments]
Backstory: started happening after i changed filament for the first time after finishing the first wheel of filament. after trying to deal with it the bowden tube started popping off and ppl on a facebook group helped me that i most likely broke the teeth holding the tube into the brass piece and that was indeed the case, got new part put the tube in and now it stopped popping out. tried a small print and it worked and now continued with my big project (34 piece that most pieces take over 14 hour each to do), it finished 95% then stopped printing (as shown in pic). i had no idea why so started another print and saw it extruding only what i could call leftovers of filament out of the nozzle. when i used my hands to help feed the filament in it started printing again properly but every time i let go the filament became weaker (as shown in pic, the proper lines is when i was pushing the filament in and weak lines when i let go) if i pull the filament down from the wheel it works somewhat so it makes me think the cog that grips the filament isnt getting a good enough grip to turn the heavy wheel of filament pulling it down and feeding it down the tube. this has been a week long plunder of trial and error and getting kinda desperate so any help is appreciated
i googled and read that creality printers dont have screw that changes the spring that controls the tension of the feeder but saw that ppl use spacers they print to change the tension on the spring to make it grip harder, problem is i cant print atm to make that spacer, is there a way to make it grip better without printing or did i brake yet another part and have to replace it? or does this problem sound like some other part is the problem and i completely missed the mark on what the problem actually is?
nozzle head temp 200 bed temp 65
2023.03.31 17:48 PritchettRobert506 [HIRING] 21 Jobs in NM Hiring Now!
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2023.03.31 17:47 Clean_Environment670 Looking for hope from any other distance runners out there?
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2023.03.31 17:47 Mediocre-Picture1663 How to find a path in mid life (or later lol) when you feel you're running out of time?
2023.03.31 17:47 dblack246 [Spoilers Published] About that event below Storm's End.
submitted by dblack246 to asoiaf [link] [comments]
"The seeing, the true seeing, that is the heart of it." -Syrio Forel Arya V, AGOT.
If only it were this easy to see through a glamor.
In book one, George is kind enough to give a guide to how to read the story by way of Syrio Forel. Syrio tells us there will be deceptions ahead and we have to see through these deceptions.
"The cat was an ordinary cat, no more. The others expected a fabulous beast, so that is what they saw. How large it was, they said. It was no larger than any other cat, only fat from indolence, for the Sealord fed it from his own table. What curious small ears, they said. Its ears had been chewed away in kitten fights. And it was plainly a tomcat, yet the Sealord said 'her,' and that is what the others saw. Are you hearing?"If you've read some of my musing here and wondered why I think Quentyn wasn't burned by a dragon; Robb didn't name Jon heir, or Mance did not go to Winterfell to save Arya, it is because I am trying to spot whether George has taken an ordinary cat and convinced readers it is a fabulous beast. I think George has invited most readers to conclude they saw a fabulous beast below Storm's End in Davos II. I think instead of witnessing the birth of a shadow baby, we saw a well-executed, carefully crafted and expertly timed glamor. I am going to attempt to lay out why the event below Storm's End was a glamor.
If you haven't already skipped to the comments to tell me this is unhinged tinfoil, thank you for that. It is always nice when people consider the argument before responding. I fully expect some passionate pushback on this one. As we were told in "They Live", people can be somewhat resistant to a new perspective. I do not mind if you disagree. Theories do not improve in echo chambers. I only ask that you consider the offerings and that your disagreement be polite and constructive.
So, a quick recap for those who have not poured over Davos II, ACOK in a while. Following the death of Renly in Catelyn IV, ACOK, (and we will get to that because that is really important) Stannis is camped outside of Storm's End demanding the castle and Edric Storm. Ser Courtnay Penrose refuses.
Ser Cortnay did not seem surprised. "Is it the justice of your cause you doubt, my lord, or the strength of your arm? Are you afraid I'll piss on your burning sword and put it out?"Stannis then speaks with Davos about the matter with Melisandre present. Melisandre sees that Stannis trusts Davos.
Davos had come too far with Stannis to play coy now. "Last year they were Robert's men. A moon ago they were Renly's. This morning they are yours. Whose will they be on the morrow?"Stannis tells Davos of Melisandre's vision as well as the need to take the Castle.
Davos Seaworth felt the small hairs rising on the back of his neck. "My lord, I do not understand you."Davos offers some protest, but he does not refuse his king.
"I must have the boy, Davos. Must. Melisandre has seen that in the flames as well."Keep in mind that Davos is required here. Put a pin in that for now we'll get back to that. Shortly thereafter, Davos sails then rows Melisandre beneath the walls of Storm's End. While they row there, they speak of other deaths Davos has connected to Melisandre.
"Yet you mean to kill a man tonight," he said. "As you killed Maester Cressen."So Davos has some interesting thoughts here. He thinks Melisandre came here to kill Penrose though she did not say this. He believes she killed Cressen and Renly though she denies it. Davos without any real evidence other than proximity, blames Melisandre for events. This is not an uncommon mistake. Story characters do this all the time and people reading the story do the same. This is human nature.
Mel claims she needs to be inside the walls of Storm's End.
Together they tied off the sail as the boat rocked beneath them. As Davos unshipped the oars and slid them into the choppy black water, he said, "Who rowed you to Renly?"When they arrive beneath Storm's End...
"Have we passed within the walls?"And shortly after this event we learn Penrose died.
"Why no, I trust you implicitly." A bitter laugh echoed off the shuttered windows. "I trust you like one of my own blood, in truth. Now tell me how Cortnay Penrose died."So there are several possible theories about how Penrose died. The first theory--and by far the most popular-- is that the shadow Davos saw threw Penrose over the walls. And yes, that is a theory because we do not see the shadow do anything and therefore we can't point to text to clearly state this shadow is real. A second theory--one I have not even seen Preston Jacobs offer--is the shadow Davos saw was nothing more than a glamor and Penrose was killed by some other act. I believe the second theory is the more likely of the two to be true. And I will offer why herein.
Why I think it was a glamorSo after seeing a shadow kill Renly in the Catelyn POV, and seeing Melisandre give birth to a shadow that entered Storm's End, and learning that Penrose was thrown over the walls I am going to argue that what Davos saw was a glamor?
Yes, I am.
Glamors are a major story plot point as are the varying levels of success characters have with spotting glamors. Characters and readers are given several clues on how to spot glamors and I think if we apply those lessons to what we see below Storm's End, we can make a strong argument that this was a glamor.
I am not here to convince you I got this right. The only purpose of this post is to share my thoughts and perhaps get a few of you to consider whether the fantastic beast the author offered you was actually something less spectacular. If after reading and considering, you are convinced the shadow beneath Storm's End was real, that is fine. You might even be right. It is just a theory I have that I offer for your consideration.
Melisandre and glamorsSo any argument that the Storm's End event could be a glamor must start with a good understanding of what glamors are, how they operate and their limitations. After trying to define the elements of a glamor as presented to us in the text, I will see if that is consistent with what Davos sees below Storm's End.
As Syrio explained to Arya (and to us readers), a glamor gives the appearance of something present that is not really there. People with sharp eyes can see through glamors. This position is repeated to Arya (and the readers) by the Kindly Man.
"Mummers change their faces with artifice," the kindly man was saying, "and sorcerers use glamors, weaving light and shadow and desire to make illusions that trick the eye. These arts you shall learn, but what we do here goes deeper. Wise men can see through artifice, and glamors dissolve before sharp eyes" The Ugly Little Girl, ADWD.Melisandre also acknowledges that glamors are a trick of the visual and they are not foolproof.
"The spell is made of shadow and suggestion. Men see what they expect to see. The bones are part of that." Was I wrong to spare this one? "If the glamor fails, they will kill you." Melisandre, ADWD.Her line about men seeing what they expect to see is important. This does not just apply to story characters. I think it can be applied to readers as well. We will get back to this.
You'll recall before she showed the crowd at Dragonstone a glamored sword, she told them they would see a sword of fire.
Melisandre was robed all in scarlet satin and blood velvet, her eyes as red as the great ruby that glistened at her throat as if it too were afire. "In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him." She lifted her voice, so it carried out over the gathered host. "Azor Ahai, beloved of R'hllor! The Warrior of Light, the Son of Fire! Come forth, your sword awaits you! Come forth and take it into your hand!" [...]
So we know when dealing with Melisandre, we should always question whether a glamor is in play because it is one of the tools in her bag and she is very good at using them to get what she wants. With that in mind, let's discuss the limitations of glamors.
We know glamors can dissolve before sharp eyes as Arya who was trained by Syrio to see through glamors demonstrates.
"Let us see." The priest lowered his cowl. Beneath he had no face; only a yellowed skull with a few scraps of skin still clinging to the cheeks, and a white worm wriggling from one empty eye socket. "Kiss me, child," he croaked, in a voice as dry and husky as a death rattle.Also important to note is that because glamors only impact the visual sense, when other senses come to bear, you start to question what you see.
Davos knelt, and Stannis drew his longsword. Lightbringer, Melisandre had named it; the red sword of heroes, drawn from the fires where the seven gods were consumed. The room seemed to grow brighter as the blade slid from its scabbard. The steel had a glow to it; now orange, now yellow, now red. The air shimmered around it, and no jewel had ever sparkled so brilliantly. But when Stannis touched it to Davos's shoulder, it felt no different than any other longsword. "Ser Davos of House Seaworth," the king said, "are you my true and honest liege man, now and forever?" Davos IV, ASOS.Those who do not rely on the visual aren't so easily fooled.
The king frowned. "Everyone else has seen the thing, why not a blind man?" His swordbelt and scabbard hung from a peg near the hearth. He took the belt down and drew the longsword out. Steel scraped against wood and leather, and radiance filled the solar; shimmering, shifting, a dance of gold and orange and red light, all the bright colors of fire.Maester Aemon is telling us that a glamor can have no impact on the physical. There will be nothing to feel, it will leave no marks on the environment. It is strictly a thing of the visual. Which is why Mel insists Mance wear those bones.
Melisandre felt the warmth in the hollow of her throat as her ruby stirred at the closeness of its slave. "You have put aside your suit of bones," she observed.And...
Every day I think how easy it would be to pry it out, and every day I don't. Must I wear the bloody bones as well?"The bones are important to the Rattleshirt glamor because everyone expects to hear the clacking of the bone armor. When things are different from what is expected, keen minds notice.
One time Arya woke in the dark, frightened for no reason she could name. Above, the Red Sword shared the sky with half a thousand stars. The night seemed oddly quiet to her, though she could hear Yoren's muttered snores, the crackle of the fire, even the muffled stirrings of the donkeys. Yet somehow it felt as though the world were holding its breath, and the silence made her shiver. She went back to sleep clutching Needle.Mel wants Mance to wear the bones to keep people from looking closer. Jon almost noticed something was off with the fRattleshirt when they fought in the yard. But Jon has not been trained to see through glamors as George has tried to train we readers.
The point of all these citations is to make it clear that you can spot a glamor by looking for evidence beyond the visual. If the only proof a thing is present is that you see a thing, you might want to look closer especially if it involves a known glamor caster. George has consistently showed us via Aemon's questioning of Lightbringer and Arya's grabbing the worm, that physical impact matters. And this is also the approach he took with the Renly event.
The Renly ShadowIn my informal discussions on the subject, the response I get most often to the suggestion that the Storm's End shadow is glamor is "what killed Renly then?" This is an excellent question and one we must look at because I think the details of the Renly event really help us understand why the Storm's End event might just be a light show. Here is the relevant text from the Renly event.
"I beg you in the name of the Mother," Catelyn began when a sudden gust of wind flung open the door of the tent. She thought she glimpsed movement, but when she turned her head, it was only the king's shadow shifting against the silken walls. She heard Renly begin a jest, his shadow moving, lifting its sword, black on green, candles guttering, shivering, something was queer, wrong, and then she saw Renly's sword still in its scabbard, sheathed still, but the shadowsword . . .This was no glamor. We know this because in addition to Cat and Brienne seeing it, the shadow had a clear impact on the physical world. George writes that the shadow entered the tent with a parting of the tent door, then when it was near Renly he felt cold and finally we saw the shadow rip through a steel gorget and open Renly's throat.
We are also told Stannis has a telepathic link to the shadow that killed Renly.
For a long time the king did not speak. Then, very softly, he said, "I dream of it sometimes. Of Renly's dying. A green tent, candles, a woman screaming. And blood." Stannis looked down at his hands. "I was still abed when he died. Your Devan will tell you. He tried to wake me. Dawn was nigh and my lords were waiting, fretting. I should have been ahorse, armored. I knew Renly would attack at break of day. Devan says I thrashed and cried out, but what does it matter? It was a dream. I was in my tent when Renly died, and when I woke my hands were clean." Davos II, ACOK.So I will say unequivocally that a real shadow assassin with the face of Stannis killed Renly. I am not arguing against that or denying that. However, this does not mean Melisandre birthed the shadow that killed Renly.
Melisandre kinda tells on herself in the next book.
"No." Perhaps he should have lied, and told her what she wanted to hear, but Davos was too accustomed to speaking truth. "You are the mother of darkness. I saw that under Storm's End, when you gave birth before my eyes."Melisandre drew of enough light to make at least one son from Stannis likely the one that killed Renly. She claims she can make more with another man, but if that is the case, why aren't there an army of them? There is no lack of men who would want to bed Melisandre either for pleasure or to serve the Red God. Why are there not more shadows? I think it is because she is not the one with the power; it's Stannis ( We will get to that part of the theory in a bit).
I know. You are like "What?! Obviously she did. She is a shadow binder from the West and we see her giving birth. We can put two and two together. We don't need to see it."
I am not suggesting any of you lack the ability to put two and two together. That would be rude and insulting and I am not fond of such discourse. I will however suggest that maybe what you think are two and two aren't two and two because even if the Renly tent shadow is a two, when you do a side-by-side with the Strom's end shadow... well that thing is too different to be a two.
The Renly tent shadow:
But if you think the shadow below Storm's end was real, just go and apply the basic glamor test that Maester Aemon gives us and find any physical evidence that the Storm's End shadow was there beyond the half blinded visuals of Davos. Why would George when writing the Storm's End event leave out all opportunities to demonstrate a single impact on the physical when he spent text space making that an issue with Lightbringer, Mance and the Renly event? Was it an oversight or a clue?
So what killed Penrose?Penrose was tossed over the walls of Storm's End. I am not denying that. I also will not argue that he felt despair and decided to kill himself. He seems pretty confident when he meets with Stannis.
"As the gods will it. Bring on your storm, my lord—and recall, if you do, the name of this castle." Ser Cortnay gave a pull on his reins and rode back toward the gate. Davos II, ACOK.Ser Cortnay does not sound all that worried about the Castle being stormed or a long siege. That castle can't be breached by an army of any size. And if the granaries are full which they should be after such a long and bountiful summer, he could hold up inside for years. So what killed him in one night if not the shadow assassin Davos saw?
My theory is a mutiny by someone already inside. And why a mutiny?
"I give you fair warning. If you force me to take my castle by storm, you may expect no mercy. I will hang you for traitors, every one of you." -The Mannis.
Because it is Stannis outside the gates. And he is the man stubborn enough to sit there a decade if he needed to. And the moment the last starving man gives in, he'd take the castle and hang that last man. Everyone knows this about Stannis. Moreover, with Renly and Robert dead, Storm's End passes to him anyway. Robert gave it to Renly and Renly had no heir. Robert is dead. Stannis is the last living Baratheon so it is his by law. All it would take was one or two men inside the castle who decided they were not about to die for the whims of a castellan who wanted to withhold the castle from the rightful lord. Men generally don't want to die for no good purpose isn't that right Dagon Cod?
He is drunk, Reek realized. The ale is speaking. "Believe what you want. I have brought Lord Ramsay's message. Now I must return to him. We'll sup on wild boar and neeps, washed down with strong red wine. Those who come with me will be welcome at the feast. The rest of you will die within a day. The Lord of the Dreadfort will bring his knights up the causeway, whilst his son leads his own men down on you from the north. No quarter will be granted. The ones that die fighting will be the lucky ones. Those who live will be given to the bog devils."All it takes is one man who isn't willing to die and someone else can take charge and open the gates.
"Then hear me. Ser Cortnay's lieutenant is cousin to the Fossoways. Lord Meadows, a green boy of twenty. Should some ill chance strike down Penrose, command of Storm's End would pass to this stripling, and his cousins believe he would accept my terms and yield up the castle." Davos II, ACOK.Garrison duty is usually left to green boys who lack the experience to go to war or grey beards who are long in service. The green boys do not want to die and the old men have served too long to know anything but obedience. Either could have turned on Penrose. That makes more sense than a shadow that finds Penrose in the huge castle then pushes Penrose over the walls rather than just stabbing him like the Renly shadow did. Why would the shadow throw him off the walls? There is no reason for Penrose to go up there. So the shadow would have to drag him up there. Nobody saw this or heard this? Anyway the point here is, there remains no evidence the shadow at Storm's End did anything.
If Mel can see the future as she claims, she may have seen the mutiny in her fires and simply positioned herself to take credit for something she had nothing to do with.
Why would Mel bother with such a ruse?Since Melisandre was introduced in ACOK, only two people who Stannis respects and trusts have spoken against her. Cressen and Davos. Cressen is dead which leave Davos as the last person who could speak against her. Mel knows this.
Davos had come too far with Stannis to play coy now. "Last year they were Robert's men. A moon ago they were Renly's. This morning they are yours. Whose will they be on the morrow?"I theorize Mel wanted to get Davos alone to try and convince him or her power because if he was on her side, she would have less opposition. This could not be as simple as summoning Davos to her tent to witness the birth. For one, Davos would refuse anyone but Stannis.
The king gave a curt nod. "You will need a small boat. Not Black Betha. No one must know what you do."Also of note is Stannis saying no one must know. Stannis also tells Davos that Melisandre has already seen Penrose's death. She likely also told him what she needed to ensure this. She requested Davos and to be alone with him. The best way to do this was to get him involved in something only he could do. The Lightbringer show worked on the others, but Davos required something more intimate. So she got him alone and showed him a form he knows well and respects: a woman great with child. Davos has seven sons by his wife. He knows the power of the form of an expecting mother.
"Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less."Davos believes in the power of seas, ships, sons and Stannis. All four of the pillars of his beliefs are exploited by Melisandre here. Speaking of exploiting the audience.
George set this up brilliantlyI think George enjoys tricking his readers. He often uses very careful and cryptic language when discussing plot elements, which is why I generally steer well clear of SSM. He does the same with his writing though. Here is how the set up for us to reach a bad conclusions works (I theorize).
George first introduces us to the idea of shadows assassins with the event in Renly's tent. We only see the shadow and the impact it has. We don't how it came to be and we are hungry for an answer. A few POV's later we are given an option for the solution. And in our understandable desire to have an answer, we take the first option without questioning it's validity. And in doing so, we do not consider other possibilities. The first offered answer might not be the correct one.
Narrative purposeOne of the things I learned from mu Quentyn discussions is when confronted with a challenge to the accustomed interpretation of the story, readers want to know what the narrative purpose of the challenge is. It is a fine and fair inquiry. I generally don't like to get into it because narrative purpose is a weathervane and each reader provides their own wind. Everyone approaches this story in a unique way and this is a wonderful thing. If we all had the same view, what would be the point of this subreddit and it's 800k members? So, I am not going to get into the subjective nature of what each of thinks is the correct narrative purpose. However, I think there are some objective elements we can discuss.
George put glamors in the story as a purposeful choice. He took the time to tell us about glamors, how to spot them, he has revealed some to us and left some for us to puzzle out on our own. George is writing a narrative full of misdirection and apparent contradictions. I think we should look out for them.
George has made Davos' guilt over his involvement in this an important plot point in the Davos POV.
She laughed. "Is it me you fear? Or what we do?"And...
Silent, Davos tended to his course. The shore was a snarl of rocks, so he was taking them well out across the bay. He would wait for the tide to turn before coming about. Storm's End dwindled behind them, but the red woman seemed unconcerned. "Are you a good man, Davos Seaworth?" she asked.And George touches on this guilt again in ASOS.
Perhaps it was only wind blowing against the rock, or the sound of the sea on the shore, but for an instant Davos Seaworth heard her answer. "You called the fire," she whispered, her voice as faint as the sound of waves in a seashell, sad and soft. "You burned us . . . burned us . . . burrrrned usssssss."I found Davos I, ASOS one of the most powerful chapters he's written. Does this section of ASOS work unless Davos is struggling with his guilt and feeling complicit in all the death that has taken place? So even if you fine redditor do not see the sense in having Davos row Melisandre under Storm's End, George wanted him there and wanted him feeling guilt and conflict over it. And George used that conflict later.
Another narrative purpose for the Storm's End event being a glamor is that is could serve as a distraction from another plot George is not ready to reveal, such as Stannis having special abilities like we see in the Starks, Targaryens, and other wargs. Mel claims there is power in king's blood. Stannis does have king's blood. And Stannis is a distant relation to the Targaryens who also have special abilities related to there genetics. Some of that ability may be within Stannis and all Melisandre did was help unlock it while he slept.
A person with latent powers they are unable to unlock consciously is something George has written about in his other works. George borrows heavily from his other works elsewhere in ASOIAF. One more thing, George's favorite science fiction film is Forbidden Planet. In this movie, one of the characters is able to summon telekinetic a manifestation of his id while he sleeps to kill his rivals. It may be that George had Stannis do exactly that.
Even if you conclude the Storm's End event was not a glamor (it is fine if you do. I might be wrong), I think it is wise to at least question the event because if it was a glamor below Storm's end, then this opens a number of new possibilities for the story. I think this story is deserving of applying the lesson at Syrio Forel offered.
"Opening your eyes is all that is needing. The heart lies and the head plays tricks with us, but the eyes see true. Look with your eyes. Hear with your ears. Taste with your mouth. Smell with your nose. Feel with your skin. Then comes the thinking, afterward, and in that way knowing the truth." Arya V, AGOT.
When we apply senses other than the visual to the event below Storm's End and then really think about it from the perspective of touch, sound and smell, are we still sure that our eyes alone told us the truth?
But what say ye fine Redditors? Is the event below Storm's End worthy of closer inspection? Is the choice by George to exclude any physical evidence of the shadow a clue to this being a glamor from a known glamor caster? As always, polite disagreement and constructive feedback are always welcome.
TL;DR: The commonly accepted position on the event below Storm's End in Davos II, ACOK may be incorrect. There are a number of inconsistencies between the shadow that killed Renly and the one that Davos sees below Storm's End. These inconsistencies should not be dismissed. It is highly possible that the event below Storm's End was a glamor cast by a known glamor caster.
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